The Election Commission has released the election schedule for the 12 Rajya Sabha seats falling vacant in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West Bengal. Voting on these seats will be held on October 16. Of these, maximum 10 seats are from Uttar Pradesh, where assembly elections are to be held next year. In such a situation, the Rajya Sabha elections are being considered an important test of the numerical strength of the present assembly.

Tezzbuzz Desk- According to the Election Commission, notification for 12 Rajya Sabha seats will be issued on September 29. The last date for filing nominations will be October 6, while scrutiny of nomination papers will be held on October 7. Candidates will be able to withdraw their names till October 9. Voting will be held on October 16 from 9 am to 4 pm and the results will be declared after counting at 5 pm on the same day.

Of the 10 Rajya Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, 8 are currently held by BJP, while one seat is with Samajwadi Party and one seat is with Bahujan Samaj Party. The seat in Uttarakhand whose tenure is ending belongs to BJP's Naresh Bansal. In West Bengal, after the resignation of TMC's Rukmini Mallik, one seat has become vacant, on which by-election is being held.

Rajya Sabha members from Uttar Pradesh whose tenure is ending include BJP's Arun Singh, Geeta Shakya, Neeraj Shekhar, Brijlal, BL Verma, Seema Dwivedi, Hardeep Singh Puri and Dinesh Sharma. Dinesh Sharma has resigned. Apart from this, the tenure of SP's Ram Gopal Yadav and BSP's Ramji Gautam are also completing. The tenure of Naresh Bansal from Uttarakhand and Rukmini Mallik from West Bengal is about to end. Rukmini Mallik has already resigned.

Now the most important question is regarding the 10 seats of Uttar Pradesh. The effective strength of the current assembly is 397 and votes of about 37 MLAs will be required for one Rajya Sabha seat. BJP has around 256 MLAs, while with the addition of allies, NDA's numerical strength reaches around 294. This includes 13 MLAs from Apna Dal (Sonelal), 9 from Rashtriya Lok Dal, 6 from Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and 5 from Nishad Party. Two MLAs from Raja Bhaiya's Jansatta Dal Loktantrik have also been supporting the NDA. Apart from this, NDA has also been getting the support of three independent MLAs.

On the other hand, Samajwadi Party has 101 MLAs and Congress has two MLAs. In this way, India Alliance has a total of 103 MLAs. On the basis of these numbers, SP is in a position to easily win two Rajya Sabha seats. At the same time, NDA also appears to be in a strong position on 7 seats.

An interesting situation in mathematics arises regarding the 10th class. NDA will have to spend 259 votes to win seven seats, after which it will be left with 35 votes. Whereas SP will spend 74 votes for two seats and will be left with 29 votes. In such a situation, BJP will need two additional votes and SP will need eight additional votes for the 10th seat. This is why the possibility of cross-voting on this seat can make the elections interesting.

The path to Rajya Sabha has become difficult for BSP in this election. After the death of the party's lone MLA Uma Shankar Singh in August, BSP is left with no MLA in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly. Due to this, the party does not have the necessary numerical strength to make its candidate win in the Rajya Sabha elections.

Even in the year 2020, BSP did not have sufficient numbers, but at that time BJP had fielded candidates on only 8 out of 10 seats. Due to this, BSP's Ramji Gautam reached Rajya Sabha unopposed. This path was cleared after the nomination of the SP-backed independent candidate was cancelled. At that time SP had alleged an agreement between BJP and BSP regarding the cancellation of nomination.

BJP is in control of one Rajya Sabha seat of Uttarakhand and the tenure of Naresh Bansal is ending. Given BJP's strong numerical strength in the state assembly, the party's position on this seat remains strong.

Rukmini Mallik had resigned from the post of Rajya Sabha member in West Bengal on 16 July 2026. He did not make public the reason for his resignation. Due to his resignation, by-election is being held on this seat. Considering the current political situation of West Bengal and the numerical strength in the Assembly, there does not seem to be any major challenge for BJP here too.

Notification for Rajya Sabha elections will be issued on 29 September 2026. October 6 will be the last date for nomination and nomination papers will be scrutinized on October 7. Candidates will be able to withdraw their names till 9th ​​October. Voting will take place on October 16 from 9 am to 4 pm. Counting of votes will start at 5 pm on the same day and results will be declared.